论文标题
使用历史匹配启发的水平设定技术来对未来的校对设计
Future Proofing a Building Design Using History Matching Inspired Level-Set Techniques
论文作者
论文摘要
历史匹配是一种用于校准复杂计算机模型的技术，也就是说，找到导致模拟输出与现实世界观测值匹配的输入设置。该技术的关键是模拟器的构造，它为未来模拟提供了快速的概率预测。在这项工作中，我们调整历史匹配框架以解决水平设置估计问题，即在输出设置以下（或更高）某个阈值的输入设置中找到输入设置。开发的方法是由特定案例研究的重大动机：一个人如何设计建筑物，该建筑物将不受过热且能节能过高，同时考虑到由于气候变化而导致的温度会增加？我们成功地解决了这一问题 - 将大量初始候选建筑设计降低到一小部分可接受的潜在建筑物。
History Matching is a technique used to calibrate complex computer models, that is, finding the input settings which lead to the simulated output matching up with real world observations. Key to this technique is the construction of emulators, which provide fast probabilistic predictions of future simulations. In this work, we adapt the History Matching framework to tackle the problem of level set estimation, that is, finding input settings where the output is below (or above) some threshold. The developed methodology is heavily motivated by a specific case study: how can one design a building that will be sufficiently protected against overheating and sufficiently energy efficient, whilst considering the expected increases in temperature due to climate change? We successfully manage to address this - greatly reducing a large initial set of candidate building designs down to a small set of acceptable potential buildings.
