论文标题
忽视不确定性会偏向房屋的决定来管理河流洪水风险
Neglecting Uncertainties Biases House-Elevation Decisions to Manage Riverine Flood Risks
论文作者
论文摘要
世界各地的房主提升房屋以管理洪水风险。决定提升房屋的高度会带来非平凡的决策问题。美国联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）建议将现有房屋提升至基本洪水高程（100年洪水的海拔）和干舷。该建议忽略了许多不确定性。在这里，我们使用多个强大的决策框架对河流洪水风险管理进行了案例研究，面对深刻的不确定性。虽然定量结果是特定于位置的，但方法和整体见解是可推广的。我们发现经济，工程和地球科学不确定性之间的强烈互动，这说明了对以前的综合分析进行扩展的必要性，以进一步了解这些联系的性质和力量。考虑到围绕洪水危害，折现率，房屋寿命和脆弱性的深刻不确定性可以将经济上最佳的房屋高程提高到超过FEMA建议的价值。
Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-yr flood) plus a freeboard. This recommendation neglects many uncertainties. Here we analyze a case-study of riverine flood risk management using a multi-objective robust decision-making framework in the face of deep uncertainties. While the quantitative results are location-specific, the approach and overall insights are generalizable. We find strong interactions between the economic, engineering, and Earth science uncertainties, illustrating the need for expanding on previous integrated analyses to further understand the nature and strength of these connections. Considering deep uncertainties surrounding flood hazards, the discount rate, the house lifetime, and the fragility can increase the economically optimal house elevation to values well above FEMA recommendation.
