论文标题
过多的死亡和玛丽亚飓风
Excess deaths and Hurricane María
论文作者
论文摘要
我们阐明灾难的直接和间接影响（例如玛丽亚飓风的直接和间接影响），并使用波多黎各重要统计系统的数据来估算飓风的直接发生后，在2017年9月袭击了该岛的飓风之后，每月过剩死亡。预测2017年9月和10月的10月证据，但在2017年11月和12月的死亡率过多的证据较弱。这些偏差转化为910例过剩死亡，不确定性间隔为440至1,390。我们还几乎没有发现2017年大型赫鲁里奇死亡率峰值的证据，这表明如此大的尖峰不仅是随机发生的，因此，赫鲁里卡后死亡率峰值可以合理地归因于飓风。
We clarify the distinction between direct and indirect effects of disasters such as Hurricane María and use data from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System to estimate monthly excess deaths in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane which struck the island in September of 2017. We use a Bayesian linear regression model fitted to monthly data for 2010--16 to predict monthly death tallies for all months in 2017, finding large deviations of actual numbers above predicted ones in September and October of 2017 but much weaker evidence of excess mortality in November and December of 2017. These deviations translate into 910 excess deaths with a 95 percent uncertainty interval of 440 to 1,390. We also find little evidence of big pre-hurricane mortality spikes in 2017, suggesting that such large spikes do not just happen randomly and, therefore, the post-hurricane mortality spike can reasonably be attributed to the hurricane.
