论文标题

因果数据表:实际评估现实世界中贝叶斯网络的大概指南

Causal datasheet: An approximate guide to practically assess Bayesian networks in the real world

论文作者

Butcher, Bradley, Huang, Vincent S., Reffin, Jeremy, Sgaier, Sema K., Charles, Grace, Quadrianto, Novi

论文摘要

在解决现实世界中的问题(例如改变寻求医疗保健行为)时,设计干预措施以改善下游结果,需要了解系统内的因果关系。因果贝叶斯网络(BN)已被提议作为一种强大的方法。但是,在实际应用中,对BN的结果的信心通常是中等的。这部分是由于无法验证某些地面真理,因为没有DAG。如果学习的DAG与先前存在的领域学说发生冲突,这尤其有问题。在政策层面上,必须证明通过这种分析产生的见解是合理的,最好伴随它们进行不确定性估计。在这里,我们提出了Gebru等人(2018年)提出的数据表概念的因果扩展,其中包括任何给定数据集的BN绩效期望。为了生成原型因果数据表的结果,我们构建了超过30,000个合成数据集,具有属性镜像真实数据的特征。然后,我们记录了最先进的结构学习算法给出的结果。这些结果被用来填充因果数据表,并且根据预期性能自动生成建议。作为概念的证明,我们使用因果数据表生成工具(CDG-T)将预期绩效期望分配给我们在印度北方邦进行的孕产妇健康调查。

In solving real-world problems like changing healthcare-seeking behaviors, designing interventions to improve downstream outcomes requires an understanding of the causal links within the system. Causal Bayesian Networks (BN) have been proposed as one such powerful method. In real-world applications, however, confidence in the results of BNs are often moderate at best. This is due in part to the inability to validate against some ground truth, as the DAG is not available. This is especially problematic if the learned DAG conflicts with pre-existing domain doctrine. At the policy level, one must justify insights generated by such analysis, preferably accompanying them with uncertainty estimation. Here we propose a causal extension to the datasheet concept proposed by Gebru et al (2018) to include approximate BN performance expectations for any given dataset. To generate the results for a prototype Causal Datasheet, we constructed over 30,000 synthetic datasets with properties mirroring characteristics of real data. We then recorded the results given by state-of-the-art structure learning algorithms. These results were used to populate the Causal Datasheet, and recommendations were automatically generated dependent on expected performance. As a proof of concept, we used our Causal Datasheet Generation Tool (CDG-T) to assign expected performance expectations to a maternal health survey we conducted in Uttar Pradesh, India.

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