论文标题
对英国两个沿海地区夏季温度条件的案例研究调查，并分析未来的温度和热浪结构在温暖的气候场景中
A case study investigation of summer temperature conditions at two coastal sites in the UK, and analysis of future temperatures and heat wave structures in a warming climate scenario
论文作者
论文摘要
分析了距离海洋的两个英国沿海地区，一个在西海岸附近的西海岸（NNB）站点hinkley Point C（HPC），另一个在东海岸附近，在拟议的NNB现场Bradwell B（BRB）附近，表面两米温度的变化进行了分析。数值模型（WRF）实验的输出在1990- 1995年的控制期间使用，[Gadian等。 2018]和2031 - 2036年期。以O（3公里）分辨率的嵌套对流允许模型由O（20公里）的分辨率（20公里）的全球通道模型驱动，从而使天气量表比当前气候模型进行了更详细的比较。此外，使用RCP8.5变暖方案，分析了结果。在将来的情况下，夏季（JJA）模型温度超过25°C的天数会增加。与对照值相比，在平均JJA最高每日温度和平均每日最高每日温度变暖为1.2°C（BRB）和0.5°C（HPC）的平均每日最高温度相比，未来的1.2°C（BRB）和1.1°C（HPC）的变暖为1.1°C（HPC）。在控制期间，该模型低估了最高温度，尤其是最低温度。结果表明，当最高温度超过25°C的夏季数量，当温度超过最低13°C时（表3，4）的夏季数量将增加> 25％，而每年的热浪事件大于10天（Gadian等人）。 2018]。夏季温度的升高大于2013年IPCC评估中预测的[Collins et al 2013]，但与UKCP18中列出的最高温度和炎热天数的增加相一致[MET Office 2019（b）]。较高的分辨率模型结果表明，IPCC报告低估了这些位置最高温度的升高。
Using observations for two UK coastal sites <3 km from the sea, one on the West coast near the nuclear new build (NNB) site Hinkley Point C (HPC) and the other on the East coast, near the proposed NNB site Bradwell B (BRB), changes in surface two-metre temperatures are analysed. The output from a numerical model (WRF) experiment is used for a control period, 1990-1995, [Gadian et al. 2018] and for the period 2031-2036. The nested convective permitting model at a resolution of O(3km) is driven by a global channel model at a resolution of O(20km), enabling a more detailed comparison on the weather scale than is available with current climate models. Further, using the RCP8.5 warming scenario, the results are analysed. In the future scenario, there is an increase in the number of days where the summer (JJA) model temperatures exceed 25°C. There is a future warming of 1.2°C (BRB) and 1.1°C (HPC) in the mean JJA maximum daily temperatures compared with the control values and an average annual maximum daily temperature warming of 1.2°C (BRB) and 0.5°C (HPC). For the control period, the model under-predicts both the maximum and particularly the minimum temperatures. Results indicate there will be a >25% increase in the number of summer days when the maximum temperature exceeds 25°C, a 60% increase when the temperature exceeds the minimum of 13°C, (Tables 3, 4) and an increase in heat wave events per annum of greater than 10 days, [Gadian et al. 2018]. The increases in summer temperatures are larger than those predicted in the 2013 IPCC assessment [Collins et al 2013], but consistent with the maximum temperatures and increased number of hot days listed in UKCP18 [Met Office 2019(b)]. The higher resolution model results suggest that the IPCC report underestimates the increases in maximum temperatures at these locations.
