论文标题
SARS-COV-2在意大利的演变，无症主义者的作用和Logistic模型的成功分析
Analysis of the evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy, the role of the asymptomatics and the success of Logistic model
论文作者
论文摘要
在这封信中，我们研究了意大利SARS-COV-2的时间演变。真实数据的时间窗口是在2月24日至3月25日之间。在我们将数据升级到4月1日之后。我们使用4种不同的模型执行分析，我们认为正确描述意大利情况的最佳候选人是一般的logistic方程。我们使用两个耦合的微分方程来描述严重感染和死亡的演变。我们已经做出了这种选择，因为在意大利，咽拭子仅用于严重感染，因此我们没有有关无症状的人的信息。一个重要的观察结果是，该病毒在某种程度上延迟在区域之间传播。因此，我们建议在整个意大利上，划分区域的分析要比整个区域更明智。尤其是该地区伦巴第相对于其他地区的行为非常快。我们展示了总死亡人数的行为以及意大利和五个地区的总严重感染：伦巴第，艾米莉亚·罗马格纳（Emilia Romagna），威尼托（Veneto），皮恩蒙特（Piemonte），托斯卡纳（Toscana）。最后，我们对峰值进行分析，并估计在锁定中保存了多少生命。
In this letter we study the temporal evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy. The time window of the real data is between February 24 and March 25. After we upgrade the data until April 1.We perform the analysis with 4 different model and we think that the best candidate to describe correctly the italian situation is a generalized Logistic equation. We use two coupled differential equations that describe the evolution of the severe infected and the deaths. We have done this choice, because in Italy the pharyngeal swabs are made only to severe infected and so we have no information about asymptomatic people. An important observation is that the virus spreads between Regions with some delay; so we suggest that a different analysis region by region would be more sensible than that on the whole Italy. In particular the region Lombardia has a behaviour very fast with respect to the other ones. We show the behaviour of the total deaths and the total severe infected for Italy and five regions: Lombardia, Emilia Romagna, Veneto, Piemonte, Toscana. Finally we do an analysis of the peak and an estimation of how many lifes have been saved with the LockDown.
