论文标题
感染套利
Infection arbitrage
论文作者
论文摘要
在某些参数值下，在流行病早期增加感染风险是单独和社会最佳的。原因是早期患者在流行峰值之前恢复或死亡，这使峰变平。如果高峰超过医疗保健系统的能力并且社会损失在感染的数量中迅速增加，这将提高福利。与在疾病淹没医疗保健能力时，接受治疗的可能性更大的可能性来自接受治疗的个人动机。对COVID-19的大流行数据的校准表明，一开始就吸收感染是最佳的，并且对于某些损失功能会减少骨料损失。
Increasing the infection risk early in an epidemic is individually and socially optimal under some parameter values. The reason is that the early patients recover or die before the peak of the epidemic, which flattens the peak. This improves welfare if the peak exceeds the capacity of the healthcare system and the social loss rises rapidly enough in the number infected. The individual incentive to get infected early comes from the greater likelihood of receiving treatment than at the peak when the disease has overwhelmed healthcare capacity. Calibration to the Covid-19 pandemic data suggests that catching the infection at the start was individually optimal and for some loss functions would have reduced the aggregate loss.
