论文标题
利用企业间影响能源效率技术的扩散:基于代理的模型
Leveraging inter-firm influence in the diffusion of energy efficiency technologies: An agent-based model
论文作者
论文摘要
能源效率技术(EET)对于节省能源和减少二氧化碳排放至关重要。但是,EET在中小型企业中的扩散相当慢。文献表明,创新采用者与潜在采用者之间的相互作用对创新扩散有重大影响。企业缺乏共享信息的动力,而EET通常缺乏可观察性,从而抑制了企业间的影响。因此,信息平台以及鼓励或迫使企业披露与EET相关的信息的适当政策,应有助于利用企业间的影响力加速Eets的扩散。为了探索此类信息平台是否以及如何影响Eets在中小型企业中的扩散,本研究构建了一个基于代理的模型来模仿EET扩散过程。基于一系列受控的数值实验,发现并解释了一些违反直觉现象。结果表明,信息平台是一把双刃剑,它尤其使EET的扩散加速约47%,但也可能会增强负面信息,以更快地扩散并延迟大量采用EET。增加网络密度和企业间影响的强度可有效地加速EET扩散,但是在达到一些临界值(分别为0.05和0.15)后,它们的影响会大大减少,并最终损害了系统的稳定性。因此,研究结果表明,EET供应商应仔细推出其有前途但不成熟的产品。可以降低企业感知风险以及维持有益而不是判断信息平台的努力的政策,可以显着减轻信息高流动性带来的负面影响。
Energy efficiency technologies (EETs) are crucial for saving energy and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, the diffusion of EETs in small and medium-sized enterprises is rather slow. Literature shows the interactions between innovation adopters and potential adopters have significant impacts on innovation diffusion. Enterprises lack the motivation to share information, and EETs usually lack observability, which suppress the inter-firm influence. Therefore, an information platform, together with proper policies encouraging or forcing enterprises to disclose EET-related information, should help harness inter-firm influence to accelerate EETs' diffusion. To explore whether and how such an information platform affects EETs' diffusion in small and medium-sized enterprises, this study builds an agent-based model to mimic EET diffusion processes. Based on a series of controlled numerical experiments, some counter-intuitive phenomena are discovered and explained. The results show that the information platform is a double-edged sword that notably accelerates EETs' diffusion by approximately 47% but may also boost negative information to diffuse even faster and delay massive adoption of EETs. Increasing network density and the intensity of inter-firm influence are effective to speed EET diffusion, but their impacts diminish drastically after reaching some critical values (0.05 and 0.15 respectively) and eventually harm the stability of the system. Hence, the findings implicate that EET suppliers should carefully launch their promising but immature products; policies that can reduce the perceived risk by enterprises and the effort to maintain an informative rather than judgmental information platform can prominently mitigate the negative side effects brought by high fluidity of information.