论文标题
通过基于经验代理的模型对干预策略的分析和模拟
Analysis and simulation of intervention strategies against bus bunching by means of an empirical agent-based model
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们提出了一个基于经验的蒙特卡洛公交网络(EMB)模型,作为测试床,以模拟干预策略,以克服公交界的效率低下。 EMB模型是一个基于代理的模型,它利用从全球定位系统(GPS)获得的总线的位置和时间数据构成:(1)总线的一组经验速度分布,以及(2)一组乘客在总线停靠站的乘客时间的指数分布。然后对这两个派生的概率分布进行蒙特卡洛采样,以产生总线运动和乘客到达的随机动力学。我们的EMB模型是通用的,可以应用于任何实际的总线网络系统。特别是,我们通过证明其在捕获穿梭巴士的束动力学的准确性来验证了针对南南技术大学穿梭巴士系统的模型。此外,我们已经分析了三种干预策略的功效:通过将这些策略的规则集纳入模型中,以防止,无板板和集中式削减。在公交车具有相同速度的情况下,我们发现所有三种策略都可以改善通勤者的等待时间和旅行时间。但是,当公交车的速度不同时,只有集中式式策略方案始终优于总线定期堆在一起的控制场景。
In this paper, we propose an Empirically-based Monte Carlo Bus-network (EMB) model as a test bed to simulate intervention strategies to overcome the inefficiencies of bus bunching. The EMB model is an agent-based model which utilizes the positional and temporal data of the buses obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) to constitute: (1) a set of empirical velocity distributions of the buses, and (2) a set of exponential distributions of inter-arrival time of passengers at the bus stops. Monte Carlo sampling is then performed on these two derived probability distributions to yield the stochastic dynamics of both the buses' motion and passengers' arrival. Our EMB model is generic and can be applied to any real-world bus network system. In particular, we have validated the model against the Nanyang Technological University's Shuttle Bus System by demonstrating its accuracy in capturing the bunching dynamics of the shuttle buses. Furthermore, we have analyzed the efficacy of three intervention strategies: holding, no-boarding, and centralized-pulsing, against bus bunching by incorporating the rule-set of these strategies into the model. Under the scenario where the buses have the same velocity, we found that all three strategies improve both the waiting and travelling time of the commuters. However, when the buses have different velocities, only the centralized-pulsing scheme consistently outperform the control scenario where the buses periodically bunch together.