论文标题
SIR框架中流行病的大小和时间尺度
Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
论文作者
论文摘要
评估流行病的严重程度的最重要特征是它的大小和时间表。我们在SIR和SIR型模型的背景下以系统的方式讨论这些功能。我们详细研究如何通过表征模型的参数来改变流行病的大小和时间尺度。使用这些结果并具有指导方针，即在意大利的Covid-19流行病，我们比较了不同的遏制策略的效率，以对比诸如社会距离，锁定，追踪，早期检测和隔离等流行病扩散的效率。
The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters characterizing the model. Using these results and having as guideline the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, we compare the efficiency of different containment strategies for contrasting an epidemic diffusion such as social distancing, lockdown, tracing, early detection and isolation.
