论文标题

关于COVID-19的两个燃烧问题:关闭经济有帮助吗?我们(部分)可以在不冒险的情况下重新开放经济吗?

Two Burning Questions on COVID-19: Did shutting down the economy help? Can we (partially) reopen the economy without risking the second wave?

论文作者

Agarwal, Anish, Alomar, Abdullah, Sarker, Arnab, Shah, Devavrat, Shen, Dennis, Yang, Cindy

论文摘要

当我们到达COVID-19大流行的最高点时,我们面临的最紧迫的问题是:我们甚至可以部分重新开放经济而不会冒险危险吗?我们首先需要了解关闭经济是否有帮助。如果这样做的话,是否有可能在部分开放经济时在对大流行的战争中取得类似的收益?为此,了解可以采取的各种干预措施的影响以及它们相应的健康和经济影响至关重要。由于存在许多干预措施,因此决策者面临的主要挑战是了解他们之间的潜在权衡,并选择最适合其情况的特定干预措施。在本备忘录中,我们提供了合成干预措施(合成控制的自然概括)的概述,这是一种由数据驱动的和统计的原则性的方法,用于执行如果方案计划,即政策制定者了解不同的干预措施之间的权衡,然后才能实际启动它们。本质上,该方法利用来自世界各地已经制定的不同干预措施的信息,并将其适合于政策制定者感兴趣的设置,例如估算对美国的行动性限制干预措施的效果,我们使用每天的死亡数据。并预测美国的反事实轨迹,如果确实采用了类似的干预措施。使用合成干预措施,我们发现提升严重的迁移率限制并仅保留适度的迁移率限制(在零售和过境位置)似乎有效地扁平了曲线。我们希望这为权衡人口安全,对医疗保健系统的压力以及对经济的影响之间的权衡提供指导。

As we reach the apex of the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing question facing us is: can we even partially reopen the economy without risking a second wave? We first need to understand if shutting down the economy helped. And if it did, is it possible to achieve similar gains in the war against the pandemic while partially opening up the economy? To do so, it is critical to understand the effects of the various interventions that can be put into place and their corresponding health and economic implications. Since many interventions exist, the key challenge facing policy makers is understanding the potential trade-offs between them, and choosing the particular set of interventions that works best for their circumstance. In this memo, we provide an overview of Synthetic Interventions (a natural generalization of Synthetic Control), a data-driven and statistically principled method to perform what-if scenario planning, i.e., for policy makers to understand the trade-offs between different interventions before having to actually enact them. In essence, the method leverages information from different interventions that have already been enacted across the world and fits it to a policy maker's setting of interest, e.g., to estimate the effect of mobility-restricting interventions on the U.S., we use daily death data from countries that enforced severe mobility restrictions to create a "synthetic low mobility U.S." and predict the counterfactual trajectory of the U.S. if it had indeed applied a similar intervention. Using Synthetic Interventions, we find that lifting severe mobility restrictions and only retaining moderate mobility restrictions (at retail and transit locations), seems to effectively flatten the curve. We hope this provides guidance on weighing the trade-offs between the safety of the population, strain on the healthcare system, and impact on the economy.

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