论文标题
在佛得角群岛建模COVID-19-SIR模型的应用
Modeling COVID-19 in Cape Verde Islands -- An application of SIR model
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19的迅速而惊讶的出现在不到五个月的时间内感染了300万，全世界杀死了全球二十万人，这使许多专家专注于模拟其传播动态，以便估计对不太遥远的未来的看法，并支持当地和国家政府做出决定。在本文中，我们将SIR模型应用于模拟Verde群岛上Covid-19的传播动力学。首先，将为圣地亚哥和Boavista群岛，当时为Verde开普群岛进行。圣地亚哥的选择基于以下事实：它是最大的岛屿，占该国人口的50％以上，而Boavista之所以选择，是因为它是诊断出Verde的Covid-19的第一个岛屿。进行模拟日期后进行的观察结果证实了我们的预测。
The rapid and surprised emergence of COVID-19, having infected three million and killed two hundred thousand people worldwide in less than five months, has led many experts to focus on simulating its propagation dynamics in order to have an estimated outlook for the not too distante future and so supporting the local and national governments in making decisions. In this paper, we apply the SIR model to simulating the propagation dynamics of COVID-19 on the Cape Verde Islands. It will be done firstly for Santiago and Boavista Islands, ant then for Cape Verde in general. The choice of Santiago rests on the fact that it is the largest island, with more than 50% of the Population of the country, whereas Boavista was chosen because it is the island where the first case of COVID-19 in Cape Verde was diagnosed. Observations made after the date of the simulations were carried out corroborates our projections.
