论文标题
建模克罗地亚Covid-19的流行病爆发和动态
Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia
论文作者
论文摘要
该论文介绍了克罗地亚共和国封闭区域上冠状病毒疾病2019年冠状病毒疾病引起的持续流行的建模。使用有关已确认的感染，恢复和已故个人数量的官方公众信息，开发了修改后的SEIR隔室模型来描述流行病的潜在动态。合适的修改后的SEIR模型在不久的将来提供了疾病进展的预测，考虑到严格的控制干预措施，通过社会疏远和隔离，对Croatian卫生部的2月25日，在Covid-19的2月25日开始引入的感染和处于危险中的个人。假设提供的数据的准确性和所使用模型的令人满意的代表性，则得出了基本的繁殖数。获得的结果描绘了潜在的积极发展，并证明了卫生部提出的严格的预防措施。
The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of the Republic of Croatia. Using the official public information on the number of confirmed infected, recovered and deceased individuals, the modified SEIR compartmental model is developed to describe the underlying dynamics of the epidemic. Fitted modified SEIR model provides the prediction of the disease progression in the near future, considering strict control interventions by means of social distancing and quarantine for infected and at-risk individuals introduced at the beginning of COVID-19 spread on February, 25th by Croatian Ministry of Health. Assuming the accuracy of provided data and satisfactory representativeness of the model used, the basic reproduction number is derived. Obtained results portray potential positive developments and justify the stringent precautionary measures introduced by the Ministry of Health.
