论文标题
用于探索地中海欧洲沙丁鱼捕鱼的贝叶斯纵向模型
Bayesian longitudinal models for exploring European sardine fishing in the Mediterranean Sea
论文作者
论文摘要
在地中海中，捕获的捕获量主要是小型的小鱼，几乎代表了总收成的49％。其中，欧洲沙丁鱼（Sardina Pilchardus）是近年来表现出高度爆发率的最重要的物种之一。在这项研究中，我们分析了1970年至2014年在地中海的欧洲沙丁鱼着陆点。我们利用了贝叶斯纵向线性混合模型，以评估国家和国家之间捕鱼的时间演变的差异。此外，我们对手工和工业渔业的随后的联合演变进行了建模。总体结果证实，地中海渔业时间序列沿它们的动态高度多样，并且这种异质性在整个过程中持续存在。此外，结果强调了两种类型的捕鱼之间的正相关关系。
In the Mediterranean Sea, catches are dominated by small pelagic fish, representing nearly the 49\% of the total harvest. Among them, the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) is one of the most commercially important species showing high over-exploitation rates in recent last years. In this study we analysed the European sardine landings in the Mediterranean Sea from 1970 to 2014. We made use of Bayesian longitudinal linear mixed models in order to assess differences in the temporal evolution of fishing between and within countries. Furthermore, we modelled the subsequent joint evolution of artisanal and industrial fisheries. Overall results confirmed that Mediterranean fishery time series were highly diverse along their dynamics and this heterogeneity was persistent throughout the time. In addition, results highlighted a positive relationship between the two types of fishing.
