论文标题
抑制和缓解措施在管理Covid-19爆发中的重要性
Importance of suppression and mitigation measures in managing COVID-19 outbreaks
论文作者
论文摘要
我采用一个简单的流行过程数学模型来评估四个基本数量的方式：繁殖数（r），敏感（s）和感染性个体（i）的数量（i）以及总社区规模（n）影响控制COVID-19的策略。数值模拟表明，在流行病开始时进行严格的抑制措施可能会产生低传染性数量，此后可以通过更长的时间来管理，以使流行曲线变平。抑制度量越强，它越快地达到了有利于随后管理的感染数量。我们讨论了该分析的预测及其如何拟合到长期的度量序列，包括使用牛群免疫概念来利用获得的免疫力。
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to control COVID-19. Numerical simulations show that strict suppression measures at the beginning of an epidemic can create low infectious numbers, which thereafter can be managed by mitigation measures over longer periods to flatten the epidemic curve. The stronger the suppression measure, the faster it achieves the low numbers of infections that are conducive to subsequent management. We discuss the predictions of this analysis and how it fits into longer-term sequences of measures, including using the herd immunity concept to leverage acquired immunity.
