论文标题
改进的方法,用于拟合和预测CoVID-19的数量基于LSTM的确认案例
An Improved Method for the Fitting and Prediction of the Number of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Based on LSTM
论文作者
论文摘要
新的冠状病毒病(Covid-19)构成了全球大流行,并已传播到世界上大多数国家和地区。通过了解区域流行的发展趋势,可以使用发展政策来控制流行病。常见的传统数学微分方程和人口预测模型对时间序列人口预测有局限性,甚至存在很大的估计错误。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种改进的方法,用于根据LSTM(长期术语记忆)神经网络预测确认病例。这项工作将改进的LSTM预测模型的实验结果与数字预测模型(例如Logistic和Hill方程)与实际数据作为参考进行了比较。这项工作利用合身的善良来评估改进的拟合效果。实验表明,所提出的方法具有较小的预测偏差和更好的拟合效果。与以前的预测方法相比,我们提出的改进方法的贡献主要在以下方面:1)我们完全考虑了数据的时空特征,而不是单个标准化数据; 2)改进的参数设置和评估指标更准确地拟合和预测。 3)我们考虑流行阶段的影响,并为不同阶段进行合理的数据处理。
New coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has constituted a global pandemic and has spread to most countries and regions in the world. By understanding the development trend of a regional epidemic, the epidemic can be controlled using the development policy. The common traditional mathematical differential equations and population prediction models have limitations for time series population prediction, and even have large estimation errors. To address this issue, we propose an improved method for predicting confirmed cases based on LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) neural network. This work compared the deviation between the experimental results of the improved LSTM prediction model and the digital prediction models (such as Logistic and Hill equations) with the real data as reference. And this work uses the goodness of fitting to evaluate the fitting effect of the improvement. Experiments show that the proposed approach has a smaller prediction deviation and a better fitting effect. Compared with the previous forecasting methods, the contributions of our proposed improvement methods are mainly in the following aspects: 1) we have fully considered the spatiotemporal characteristics of the data, rather than single standardized data; 2) the improved parameter settings and evaluation indicators are more accurate for fitting and forecasting. 3) we consider the impact of the epidemic stage and conduct reasonable data processing for different stage.