论文标题

建模骚乱,集体行为和流行病的传播

Modeling the propagation of riots, collective behaviors, and epidemics

论文作者

Berestycki, Henri, Nordmann, Samuel, Rossi, Luca

论文摘要

本文与我们在[15]中引入的一个反应扩散系统有关,并从流行病学中概括了SIR类型模型。现在,此类系统也用于描述集体行为。在本文中,我们通过社会动荡的典范为这些显然多样化的现象提出了一种建模方法。该模型涉及两个数量:社会动荡的水平,或更普遍的活动,U和社会张力V领域,它们扮演着不对称的角色。我们认为u是实际观察到的或显式的数量,而V是一个敏感性的敏感性,有时是隐性的,可以调节U的动力学。在本文中,我们探讨了这类模型,并基于[15]中开发的框架证明了几个理论结果,其中本工作是伴随论文。我们在这里特别强调系统的两个子类:张力抑制和张力增强。这些特征分别以社会张力动荡的负面反馈或积极反馈。我们为这些类别建立了几个属性,还研究了一些扩展。特别是,我们描述了最初的活动激增后系统的行为。我们表明该模型可以引起许多不同的定性动态。我们还提供各种数值模拟,以说明我们的结果并揭示进一步的属性和开放问题。

This paper is concerned with a family of Reaction-Diffusion systems that we introduced in [15], and that generalizes the SIR type models from epidemiology. Such systems are now also used to describe collective behaviors.In this paper, we propose a modeling approach for these apparently diverse phenomena through the example of the dynamics of social unrest. The model involves two quantities: the level of social unrest, or more generally activity, u, and a field of social tension v, which play asymmetric roles. We think of u as the actually observed or explicit quantity while v is an ambiant, sometimes implicit, field of susceptibility that modulates the dynamics of u. In this article, we explore this class of model and prove several theoretical results based on the framework developed in [15], of which the present work is a companion paper. We particularly emphasize here two subclasses of systems: tension inhibiting and tension enhancing. These are characterized by respectively a negative or a positivefeedback of the unrest on social tension. We establish several properties for these classes and also study some extensions. In particular, we describe the behavior of the system following an initial surge of activity. We show that the model can give rise to many diverse qualitative dynamics. We also provide a variety of numerical simulations to illustrate our results and to reveal further properties and open questions.

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