论文标题
爬下查尼的梯子:机器学习和计算气候科学的丹纳德时代
Climbing down Charney's ladder: Machine Learning and the post-Dennard era of computational climate science
论文作者
论文摘要
1950年代数字计算的出现引发了天气和气候科学的革命。长期以来基于时空的推断模式,气象学在数值预测的十年进步中取代了计算方法。这些相同的方法还引起了计算气候科学,研究时间间隔比天气事件的时间更长,并且外部边界条件的变化。随后几十年的计算能力指数增长使我们进入了今天,模型在分辨率和复杂性中的增长,能够掌握许多具有全球影响的小规模现象,并且在地球系统中越来越复杂。 七十年后,当前的计算关头预示着所谓的Dennard缩放,物理学背后较小的计算单元背后的物理学,并且算术速度更快。这促使我们对天气和气候模拟的方法发生了根本性的变化,这可能与约翰·冯·诺伊曼(John von Neumann)在1950年代所经历的一样革命性。一种方法可以使我们进入模式识别和推断的早期时代,这次是在计算能力的帮助下。另一种方法可能会导致我们获得在数学方程式中继续表达的见解。在方法或任何合成的方法中,显然不再是过去几十年的稳定游行,继续为更详细的模型增加细节。在此招股说明书中,我们试图展示在未来几十年中如何展开这种情况的概述,这是对物理知识,计算和数据的新利用。
The advent of digital computing in the 1950s sparked a revolution in the science of weather and climate. Meteorology, long based on extrapolating patterns in space and time, gave way to computational methods in a decade of advances in numerical weather forecasting. Those same methods also gave rise to computational climate science, studying the behaviour of those same numerical equations over intervals much longer than weather events, and changes in external boundary conditions. Several subsequent decades of exponential growth in computational power have brought us to the present day, where models ever grow in resolution and complexity, capable of mastery of many small-scale phenomena with global repercussions, and ever more intricate feedbacks in the Earth system. The current juncture in computing, seven decades later, heralds an end to what is called Dennard scaling, the physics behind ever smaller computational units and ever faster arithmetic. This is prompting a fundamental change in our approach to the simulation of weather and climate, potentially as revolutionary as that wrought by John von Neumann in the 1950s. One approach could return us to an earlier era of pattern recognition and extrapolation, this time aided by computational power. Another approach could lead us to insights that continue to be expressed in mathematical equations. In either approach, or any synthesis of those, it is clearly no longer the steady march of the last few decades, continuing to add detail to ever more elaborate models. In this prospectus, we attempt to show the outlines of how this may unfold in the coming decades, a new harnessing of physical knowledge, computation, and data.