论文标题
建模澳大利亚199人群的动力学：概率分析
Modeling the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Population in Australia: A Probabilistic Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
新型的Corona病毒Covid-192020年1月25日左右到达澳大利亚海岸。本文提出了一种新颖的方法，可以使用有限的数据进行高度准确性和及时的方式，以高度的准确性和及时地对澳大利亚的COVID-19大流行进行了预测；可以用来指导政府每天和/或每周对社会限制的决策的宝贵资源。本研究中使用的“部分观察的随机过程”不仅预测了未来的实际值，而且误差极低，而且还预测了人群中未观察到的Covid-19案例的百分比。该模型可以进一步协助决策者评估其决策过程中几种可能的替代方案的有效性。
The novel Corona Virus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.
