论文标题
观察性研究的事件时间分析：使用强度模型的指导
Analysis of time-to-event for observational studies: Guidance to the use of intensity models
论文作者
论文摘要
本文为具有数学背景的研究人员提供了指导，以基于强度（危险）模型的观察性研究时间进行事实分析的行为。对时间轴，事件定义和审查等基本概念进行了讨论。引入了危害模型，特别强调了COX比例危害回归模型。我们提供的检查清单在拟合模型和评估其拟合良好以及解释结果时可能很有用。特别注意如何通过引入时间依赖性协变量来避免不朽的时间偏见问题。我们在尝试从此类模型得出适当的因果结论时，基于危害模型和困难讨论预测。最后，我们提出了一系列示例，其中说明了方法和检查清单。使用免费可用的R软件的计算细节和实施记录在补充材料中。该论文是作为Stratos倡议的一部分准备的。
This paper provides guidance for researchers with some mathematical background on the conduct of time-to-event analysis in observational studies based on intensity (hazard) models. Discussions of basic concepts like time axis, event definition and censoring are given. Hazard models are introduced, with special emphasis on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We provide check lists that may be useful both when fitting the model and assessing its goodness of fit and when interpreting the results. Special attention is paid to how to avoid problems with immortal time bias by introducing time-dependent covariates. We discuss prediction based on hazard models and difficulties when attempting to draw proper causal conclusions from such models. Finally, we present a series of examples where the methods and check lists are exemplified. Computational details and implementation using the freely available R software are documented in Supplementary Material. The paper was prepared as part of the STRATOS initiative.
