论文标题

通过无效的仪器来推断因果效应的两个强大工具

Two Robust Tools for Inference about Causal Effects with Invalid Instruments

论文作者

Kang, Hyunseung, Lee, Youjin, Cai, T. Tony, Small, Dylan S.

论文摘要

仪器变量已被广泛用于估计治疗对结果的因果作用。基于工具变量的因果效应的现有置信区间假定所有推定的仪器变量都是有效的。有效的仪器变量是一个变量,仅通过影响治疗而影响结果,并且与未衡量的混杂因素无关。但是,实际上,一些推定的仪器变量可能无效。本文介绍了在有无效仪器的情况下进行有效推理和测试的两种工具。首先,我们提出了一种简单而通用的方法来构建基于众所周知的置信区间的工会来构建置信区间。其次,我们提出了基于对撞机偏见的无因果效应的新型测试。我们的两个提案,尤其是当融合在一起时,在存在无效的仪器时胜过传统的仪器可变置信区间,并且当担心违反仪器变量假设时,也可以用作灵敏度分析。新方法应用于孟德尔随机研究,该研究对低密度脂蛋白对心血管疾病的发生率的因果关系。

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables are valid; a valid instrumental variable is a variable that affects the outcome only by affecting the treatment and is not related to unmeasured confounders. However, in practice, some of the putative instrumental variables are likely to be invalid. This paper presents two tools to conduct valid inference and tests in the presence of invalid instruments. First, we propose a simple and general approach to construct confidence intervals based on taking unions of well-known confidence intervals. Second, we propose a novel test for the null causal effect based on a collider bias. Our two proposals, especially when fused together, outperform traditional instrumental variable confidence intervals when invalid instruments are present, and can also be used as a sensitivity analysis when there is concern that instrumental variables assumptions are violated. The new approach is applied to a Mendelian randomization study on the causal effect of low-density lipoprotein on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases.

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