论文标题
红灯区域扩展关闭对印度Covid-19的传播的影响
The effect of extended closure of red-light areas on COVID-19 transmission in India
论文作者
论文摘要
新型的冠状病毒病（Covid-19）大流行在印度导致超过200,000例。迄今为止，印度已经采取了限制疾病传播的锁定措施。但是，在锁定后，红光地区的商业性工作（RLAS）有可能导致Covid-19的复兴。我们开发了RLA中的CoVID-19传播模型，与RLA重新开放对案件，住院和死亡率的重新开放相比，评估了延长的RLA关闭的影响，在五个印度城市，城市内和印度各地的RLA内的死亡率。闭合在所有尺度上都降低了传输。加尔各答，浦那和那格浦尔的RLA居民中，超过90％的累积病例和死亡人数可能会在流行病在重新开放的情况下达到顶峰的时间。在整个印度，RLA的延长关闭将使人口大大受益，将COVID-19病例的高峰延迟8至23天，并避免累积病例的32％至60.2％，在该流行病峰值处累积死亡的43％至67.6％。 RLA的扩展关闭，直到制定更好的预防和治疗策略将使印度的公共卫生受益。
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in over 200,000 cases in India. Thus far, India has implemented lockdown measures to curb disease transmission. However, commercial sex work in red-light areas (RLAs) has potential to lead to COVID-19 resurgence after lockdown. We developed a model of COVID-19 transmission in RLAs, evaluating the impact of extended RLA closure compared with RLA reopening on cases, hospitalizations, and mortality rates within the RLAs of five major Indian cities, within the cities, and across India. Closure lowered transmission at all scales. More than 90% of cumulative cases and deaths among RLA residents of Kolkata, Pune, and Nagpur could be averted by the time the epidemic would peak under a re-opening scenario. Across India, extended closure of RLAs would benefit the population at large, delaying the peak of COVID-19 cases by 8 to 23 days, and avert 32% to 60.2% of cumulative cases and 43% to 67.6% of cumulative deaths at the peak of the epidemic. Extended closure of RLAs until better prevention and treatment strategies are developed would benefit public health in India.
