论文标题
基于规则的流行模型
Rule-based epidemic models
论文作者
论文摘要
本文介绍了针对传染病主题的基于规则的建模。基于规则的模型将基于反应的模型概括为具有内部状态的试剂,并且可能会绑定在一起以形成复合物,如化学中。基于规则的建模可以直接从分子生物学转移到流行病学,并使我们能够为流行病学感兴趣的过程表达广泛的模型,而这些模型在隔室模型中否则是不可行的。其中包括在室内模型中常见的动态,例如病毒从传染性到易感人群的传播以及在典型模型范围之外的更复杂的动态,例如社交行为和决策,测试能力限制以及暴露于病毒但尚未症状的人的追踪。我们建议这样的动态与基于规则的模型充分捕捉,并且这样做将表述的直觉和透明度与可伸缩性和组合性结合在一起。 We demonstrate this feasibility of our approach using a suite of seven models to describe a spread of infectious diseases under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events.这些模型的机器可读描述与数学描述紧密相对应,并且还起到了人类可读格式的作用,因此很容易知道“模型中的内容”。
This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in chemistry. Rule-based modelling is directly transferable from molecular biology to epidemiology and allows us to express a broad class of models for processes of interest in epidemiology that would not otherwise be feasible in compartmental models. This includes dynamics commonly found in compartmental models such as the spread of a virus from an infectious to a susceptible population, and more complex dynamics outside the typical scope of such models such as social behaviours and decision-making, testing capacity constraints, and tracing of people exposed to a virus but not yet symptomatic. We propose that such dynamics are well-captured with rule-based models, and that doing so combines intuitiveness and transparency of representation with scalability and compositionality. We demonstrate this feasibility of our approach using a suite of seven models to describe a spread of infectious diseases under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events. The machine-readable description of these models corresponds closely to the mathematical description and also functions as a human-readable format so that one knows readily "what is in the model".