论文标题
电力网络对GIC的敏感性的概率分析
Probabilistic Analysis of Power Network Susceptibility to GICs
论文作者
论文摘要
随着上个世纪对电力网络的依赖有所增加，地磁诱发电流（GIC）损害的风险已成为公用事业的关注点。 GIC建模中的当前最新状态需要显着的地球物理建模和理论上得出的网络响应，但经验验证有限。在这项工作中，我们在测量的地磁领域和GIC之间介绍了一个概率工程步骤，而无需有关电源系统拓扑或接地电导率概况的数据。由此产生的经验集合用于分析TVA网络（美国东南部），以峰值和累积暴露于5中度到强度的地磁风暴。根据易感性对多个节点进行排名，并且总TVA网络的测量响应进一步校准了现有的极值模型。提出的概率工程步骤可以补充当前的方法，对于现有变压器和电力系统的风险评估特别有用。
As reliance on power networks has increased over the last century, the risk of damage from geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) has become a concern to utilities. The current state of the art in GIC modelling requires significant geophysical modelling and a theoretically derived network response, but has limited empirical validation. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic engineering step between the measured geomagnetic field and GICs, without needing data about the power system topology or the ground conductivity profiles. The resulting empirical ensembles are used to analyse the TVA network (south-eastern USA) in terms of peak and cumulative exposure to 5 moderate to intense geomagnetic storms. Multiple nodes are ranked according to susceptibility and the measured response of the total TVA network is further calibrated to existing extreme value models. The probabilistic engineering step presented can complement present approaches, being particularly useful for risk assessment of existing transformers and power systems.
