论文标题
通过莎丽估计巴西国家报告中的COVID-19
Estimation of COVID-19 under-reporting in Brazilian States through SARI
论文作者
论文摘要
由于其影响，Covid-19一直在强调该学院寻求治疗，减轻或控制它。但是，在控制方面，仍然很少有研究重点是报告估计值。据认为，报告不足是确定实际死亡率的相关因素，并且（如果不考虑）可能会导致严重的错误信息。因此，这项工作的目的是估计使用Infogripe中的数据对巴西国家中Covid-19的病例和死亡的报告不足，以通知严重的急性呼吸道感染（SARI）。该方法基于惯性的概念和使用事件检测技术来研究住院的纱丽病例的时间序列。该疾病实际病例（称为新颖性）的估计是通过比较2020年莎丽病例（Covid-19之后）与近年来预期病例（2016年至2019年）的总预期病例来计算的。结果表明，在州之间，报告率不足的速度差异很大，巴西同一地区的州没有一般模式。 本文发表的版本可从https://doi.org/10.1007/s00354-021-00125-3提供。 请引用为：B.Paixão，L。Baroni，M。Pedroso，R。Salles，L。Escobar，C。DeSousa，R。DeFreitas Saldanha，J。Soares，R。Coutinho等，2021
Due to its impact, COVID-19 has been stressing the academy to search for curing, mitigating, or controlling it. However, when it comes to controlling, there are still few studies focused on under-reporting estimates. It is believed that under-reporting is a relevant factor in determining the actual mortality rate and, if not considered, can cause significant misinformation. Therefore, the objective of this work is to estimate the under-reporting of cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazilian states using data from the Infogripe on notification of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI). The methodology is based on the concepts of inertia and the use of event detection techniques to study the time series of hospitalized SARI cases. The estimate of real cases of the disease, called novelty, is calculated by comparing the difference in SARI cases in 2020 (after COVID-19) with the total expected cases in recent years (2016 to 2019) derived from a seasonal exponential moving average. The results show that under-reporting rates vary significantly between states and that there are no general patterns for states in the same region in Brazil. The published version of this paper is made available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00354-021-00125-3. Please cite as: B. Paixão, L. Baroni, M. Pedroso, R. Salles, L. Escobar, C. de Sousa, R. de Freitas Saldanha, J. Soares, R. Coutinho, et al., 2021, Estimation of COVID-19 Under-Reporting in the Brazilian States Through SARI, New Generation Computing
