论文标题
使用具有缺失值和测量误差的协变量的多系统估计：估计新西兰毛利人的大小
Multiple system estimation using covariates having missing values and measurement error: estimating the size of the Māori population in New Zealand
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了两个或多个链接的寄存器或列表的使用，用于人口大小估计，并研究所有或仅在某些寄存器上出现的变量之间的关系。这种关系通常不完全知道，因为有些人只出现在某些登记册中，而有些人则没有在任何注册中。使用EM算法同时解决了这两个问题。我们扩展了这种方法，以估计新西兰土著毛利人的规模，从而导致了几项创新：（1）该方法扩展到四个登记册（包括人口人口普查），在此报告中，毛利人地位的报告在册之间有所不同； （2）一个或多个登记册中的某些人缺少种族，我们适应了处理这种额外失踪的方法； （3）一些寄存器按设计涵盖了人口的子集。我们讨论了哪些假设可以忽略这种结构材料并提供一般结果； （4）我们将每个寄存器中的毛利人指标视为用误差测量的变量，并将潜在类模型嵌入多系统估计中，以估计潜在变量的种群大小，被解释为真实的毛利人状态。最后，我们仅从管理数据中讨论估计毛利人的人口规模。我们文章的补充材料可在线获得。
We investigate use of two or more linked registers, or lists, for both population size estimation and to investigate the relationship between variables appearing on all or only some registers. This relationship is usually not fully known because some individuals appear in only some registers, and some are not in any register. These two problems have been solved simultaneously using the EM algorithm. We extend this approach to estimate the size of the indigenous Māori population in New Zealand, leading to several innovations: (1) the approach is extended to four registers (including the population census), where the reporting of Māori status differs between registers; (2) some individuals in one or more registers have missing ethnicity, and we adapt the approach to handle this additional missingness; (3) some registers cover subsets of the population by design. We discuss under which assumptions such structural undercoverage can be ignored and provide a general result; (4) we treat the Māori indicator in each register as a variable measured with error, and embed a latent class model in the multiple system estimation to estimate the population size of a latent variable, interpreted as the true Māori status. Finally, we discuss estimating the Māori population size from administrative data only. Supplementary materials for our article are available online.
