论文标题
验证中国的GFS日间太阳辐照度预测
Validation of GFS day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts in China
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提供了一个基准，以评估全球预测系统（GFS）对中国太阳能应用的运营日期太阳辐照度预测。首先，GFS日间太阳辐照度预测被定量验证，每小时在中国的17个一流国家太阳能监测站和1个基线表面辐射网（BSRN）站进行定量验证。其次，提出了一种基于梯度提升（GB）和GFS产品的混合预测方法，以提高预测准确性。将GF的预测和基于GB的预测与持久性预测进行了比较。结果表明，持久性模型比GFS预测更准确，并且混合方法具有最佳性能。此外，直接扩散分离的参数优化无法减少直接辐照度（DNI）预测的误差。
This paper provides a benchmark to evaluate operational day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts of Global Forecast System (GFS) for solar energy applications in China. First, GFS day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts are validated quantitatively with hourly observations at 17 first-class national solar monitoring stations and 1 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station all over China. Second, a hybrid forecast method based on Gradient Boosting (GB) and GFS product is proposed to improve forecasts accuracy. Both GFS forecasts and GB-based forecasts are compared with persistence forecasts. The results demonstrate persistence model is more accurate than GFS forecasts, and the hybrid method has the best performance. Besides, parameter optimization of direct-diffuse separation fails to reduce the errors of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts.
