论文标题

微观经济公司市场进化中的政府干预建模

Government intervention modeling in microeconomic company market evolution

论文作者

Chorowski, Michał, Kutner, Ryszard

论文摘要

对于公司在市场上的生存而言,现代技术和创新变得比以往任何时候都变得更加重要。因此,从理论和实践的观点来看,了解政府如何影响技术的增长和创新扩散(TGID)过程,这是重要的。我们提出了Ausloos-Clippe-pȩkalski和相关的Cichy数值模型的简单但必不可少的扩展。这两种模型均受非线性非平衡统计物理学的启发。我们的扩展涉及一个参数,描述了政府在公司市场中TGID过程中干预的可能性。我们表明,使用蒙特卡洛模拟,干预主义可以对公司市场产生影响,具体取决于所支持的公司的细分市场。高干预概率可能导致市场发展的稳定。与具有较低干预参数的市场相比,它长期降低了市场的技术水平。我们发现,与帮助中级公司的干预措施相比,对公司市场的技术薄弱和强大细分市场的干预并没有实质性影响市场动态。但是,这仍然是一个简单的模型,可以进一步扩展,并通过包括其他因素使其更现实。也就是说,创新的成本和风险或政府资源和支持公司的能力有限。

Modern technology and innovations are becoming more crucial than ever for the survival of companies in the market. Therefore, it is significant both from theoretical and practical points of view to understand how governments can influence technology growth and innovation diffusion (TGID) processes. We propose a simple but essential extension of Ausloos-Clippe-Pȩkalski and related Cichy numerical models of the TGID in the market. Both models are inspired by the nonlinear non-equilibrium statistical physics. Our extension involves a parameter describing the probability of government intervention in the TGID process in the company market. We show, using Monte Carlo simulations, the effects interventionism can have on the companies' market, depending on the segment of firms that are supported. The high intervention probability can result, paradoxically, in the destabilization of the market development. It lowers the market's technology level in the long-time limit compared to markets with a lower intervention parameter. We found that the intervention in the technologically weak and strong segments of the company market does not substantially influence the market dynamics, compared to the intervention helping the middle-level companies. However, this is still a simple model which can be extended further and made more realistic by including other factors. Namely, the cost and risk of innovation or limited government resources and capabilities to support companies.

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