论文标题
准确估计寿命脑轨迹的配方,区分纵向和队列效应
A recipe for accurate estimation of lifespan brain trajectories, distinguishing longitudinal and cohort effects
论文作者
论文摘要
我们解决了估计整个生命周期中大脑不同部分如何发展和变化的问题,以及这些轨迹如何受到遗传和环境因素的影响。由于它们的形状通常是高度非线性的,因此对这些寿命轨迹的估计在统计上是具有挑战性的,而且只能通过纵向检查来量化真正的变化,因为神经影像学研究的随访间隔通常覆盖少于10 \%的寿命,但使用横截面信息的使用是必要的。纵向分析中常用的线性混合模型(LMM)和结构方程模型(SEM)依赖于通常不符合寿命数据的假设,特别是当数据包含多个研究的观察结果时。尽管LMM需要对多项式功能形式进行先验规范,但SEMS并不容易处理测量之间的非结构化时间间隔的数据。广义添加混合模型(GAMMS)提供了一种有吸引力的替代方案,在本文中,我们提出了使用大型纵向数据集和现实的模拟实验来估算12个大脑区域的寿命轨迹的各种方法。我们表明,γ能够更准确地拟合寿命轨迹,区分纵向和横截面效应,并估计遗传和环境暴露的影响。最后,我们讨论和对比与寿命研究有关的问题,这些问题严格需要重复测量数据和问题,这些数据和问题可以通过每个参与者进行单一的测量来回答,在后一种情况下,这简化了需要做出的假设。这些示例伴随着R代码,为有兴趣使用Gamms的研究人员提供了一个教程。
We address the problem of estimating how different parts of the brain develop and change throughout the lifespan, and how these trajectories are affected by genetic and environmental factors. Estimation of these lifespan trajectories is statistically challenging, since their shapes are typically highly nonlinear, and although true change can only be quantified by longitudinal examinations, as follow-up intervals in neuroimaging studies typically cover less than 10 \% of the lifespan, use of cross-sectional information is necessary. Linear mixed models (LMMs) and structural equation models (SEMs) commonly used in longitudinal analysis rely on assumptions which are typically not met with lifespan data, in particular when the data consist of observations combined from multiple studies. While LMMs require a priori specification of a polynomial functional form, SEMs do not easily handle data with unstructured time intervals between measurements. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) offer an attractive alternative, and in this paper we propose various ways of formulating GAMMs for estimation of lifespan trajectories of 12 brain regions, using a large longitudinal dataset and realistic simulation experiments. We show that GAMMs are able to more accurately fit lifespan trajectories, distinguish longitudinal and cross-sectional effects, and estimate effects of genetic and environmental exposures. Finally, we discuss and contrast questions related to lifespan research which strictly require repeated measures data and questions which can be answered with a single measurement per participant, and in the latter case, which simplifying assumptions that need to be made. The examples are accompanied with R code, providing a tutorial for researchers interested in using GAMMs.