论文标题
通过基于隔室和粒子的方法对Covid-19的演变进行建模：应用于塞浦路斯情况
Modeling the evolution of COVID-19 via compartmental and particle-based approaches: application to the Cyprus case
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了两种不同的方法，用于建模COVID-19-19大流行的传播。两种方法均基于人口类别易感，暴露，感染，隔离和恢复，并允许任意数量的具有不同感染率和不同测试水平的亚组。第一个模型来自一组普通的微分方程，这些方程式包含了类人口过渡的速率。另一个是粒子模型，它是人群模拟模型的特定情况，其中疾病通过粒子碰撞传播，感染率通过调节粒子速度而变化。这两个模型的参数是使用文献和特定于国家 /地区数据的COVID-19进行调整的，包括施加和解除限制的效果。我们使用塞浦路斯的数据证明了这两种模型的适用性，我们发现这两个模型都会产生非常相似的结果，从而对预测产生了信心。
We present two different approaches for modeling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both approaches are based on the population classes susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined, and recovered and allow for an arbitrary number of subgroups with different infection rates and different levels of testing. The first model is derived from a set of ordinary differential equations that incorporates the rates at which population transitions take place among classes. The other is a particle model, which is a specific case of crowd simulation model, in which the disease is transmitted through particle collisions and infection rates are varied by adjusting the particle velocities. The parameters of these two models are tuned using information on COVID-19 from the literature and country-specific data, including the effect of restrictions as they were imposed and lifted. We demonstrate the applicability of both models using data from Cyprus, for which we find that both models yield very similar results, giving confidence in the predictions.
