论文标题
异源种群中的SEIRD模型：通勤和社会不平等在Covid-19动力学中的作用
SEIRD model in heterogenous populations: The role of commuting and social inequalities in the COVID-19 dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们分析了通勤和社会不平等的影响，对新型冠状病毒的流行发展（Covid-19）。以此目的，我们考虑了一个模型（易感性，暴露，感染，被疾病恢复和死亡）模型，而在人群中没有至关重要的动态分为具有不同经济资源的斑块，并且个人可以从一个斑点上下班到另一个补丁（双边）。在建模中，我们任意选择社交和通勤参数。我们使用下一代方法计算基本的生殖数$ R_0 $，并分析相对于参数的$ R_0 $的灵敏度。此外，我们考虑了分为两个斑块的人口，为我们的模型考虑了多种偶然的人群的总数和累积死亡，我们进行了数值模拟。
In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease) model without vital dynamics in a population divided into patches that have different economic resources and in which the individuals can commute from one patch to another (bilaterally). In the modeling we choose the social and commuting parameters arbitrarily. We calculate the basic reproductive number $R_0$ with the next generation approach and analyze the sensitivity of $R_0$ with respect to the parameters. Furthermore, we run numerical simulations considering a population divided into two patches to bring some conclusions on the number of total infected individuals and cumulative deaths for our model considering heterogeneous populations.
