论文标题

基于增强学习的动态权衡集合模型用于时间序列预测

Reinforcement Learning based dynamic weighing of Ensemble Models for Time Series Forecasting

论文作者

Perepu, Satheesh K., Balaji, Bala Shyamala, Tanneru, Hemanth Kumar, Kathari, Sudhakar, Pinnamaraju, Vivek Shankar

论文摘要

合奏模型是强大的模型构建工具,其开发为重点,以提高模型预测的准确性。他们在各种情况下发现了时间序列预测中的应用程序,包括但不限于流程行业,医疗保健和经济学,其中单个模型可能无法提供最佳性能。众所周知,如果选择用于数据建模的模型是不同的(线性/非线性,静态/动力学)和独立的(最小相关模型),则预测的准确性将得到提高。文献中建议称量整体模型的各种方法使用一组静态权重。由于这种限制,使用一组静态权重来称量集合模型的方法无法有效地捕获数据的动态变化或局部特征。为了解决这个问题,根据数据的性质和单个模型预测,在不同时间在不同时间动态分配和更新每个模型的权重的增强学习方法。在线实施的RL方法基本上学会了更新权重并随着时间的流逝而减少错误。时间序列数据的仿真研究表明,使用RL的动态加权方法比现有方法更好地了解了权重。将所提出方法的准确性与通过归一化均方误差(NMSE)值定量调整的现有方法进行比较。

Ensemble models are powerful model building tools that are developed with a focus to improve the accuracy of model predictions. They find applications in time series forecasting in varied scenarios including but not limited to process industries, health care, and economics where a single model might not provide optimal performance. It is known that if models selected for data modelling are distinct (linear/non-linear, static/dynamic) and independent (minimally correlated models), the accuracy of the predictions is improved. Various approaches suggested in the literature to weigh the ensemble models use a static set of weights. Due to this limitation, approaches using a static set of weights for weighing ensemble models cannot capture the dynamic changes or local features of the data effectively. To address this issue, a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to dynamically assign and update weights of each of the models at different time instants depending on the nature of data and the individual model predictions is proposed in this work. The RL method implemented online, essentially learns to update the weights and reduce the errors as the time progresses. Simulation studies on time series data showed that the dynamic weighted approach using RL learns the weight better than existing approaches. The accuracy of the proposed method is compared with an existing approach of online Neural Network tuning quantitatively through normalized mean square error(NMSE) values.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源