论文标题

极端事件的电导模型:极光电导对太空天气预测的影响

Conductance Model for Extreme Events : Impact of Auroral Conductance on Space Weather Forecasts

论文作者

Mukhopadhyay, Agnit, Welling, Daniel T, Liemohn, Michael W, Ridley, Aaron J, Chakrabarty, Shibaji, Anderson, Brian J

论文摘要

电离层电导是调节磁层磁层电流通过电离层闭合的关键因素,作为Hall和Pedersen电流。尽管它在对磁层 - 电离层耦合的预测研究中的重要性,但在大多数基于全球第一原则的模型中,极光区域中电离层电导率的估计仍然是不稳定的。估计极光电导的不准确性阻碍了我们在极端太空天气事件中磁层 - 离子层系统的理解和预测能力。在本文中,我们通过开发了极端事件的高级电导模型(CMEE)来解决这一问题,该模型估计了电场对齐电流值的极光电导。 CMEE是使用非线性回归从同化图中的一分钟一分钟的分辨率输出中开发的,特别是包括太阳能风层层层系统极端驱动的时间。该模型还包括使用其他调整来改进极光椭圆形的规定来增强极光的电导。在太空天气模拟中,CMEE已纳入了空间天气建模框架(SWMF)的Ridley Ionosphere模型(RIM)中。本文通过六个太空天气事件的验证过程比较了CMEE与RIM中现有电导模型的性能。性能分析表明,电离层反馈对地面空间天气预报的总体改善。具体而言,该模型能够改善影响模拟DB/DT和ΔB的电离层电流的预测,从而实现DB/DT预测技能的实质性提高。

Ionospheric conductance is a crucial factor in regulating the closure of magnetospheric field-aligned currents through the ionosphere as Hall and Pedersen currents. Despite its importance in predictive investigations of the magnetosphere - ionosphere coupling, the estimation of ionospheric conductance in the auroral region is precarious in most global first-principles based models. This impreciseness in estimating the auroral conductance impedes both our understanding and predictive capabilities of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during extreme space weather events. In this article, we address this concern, with the development of an advanced Conductance Model for Extreme Events (CMEE) that estimates the auroral conductance from field aligned current values. CMEE has been developed using nonlinear regression over a year's worth of one-minute resolution output from assimilative maps, specifically including times of extreme driving of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The model also includes provisions to enhance the conductance in the aurora using additional adjustments to refine the auroral oval. CMEE has been incorporated within the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for usage in space weather simulations. This paper compares performance of CMEE against the existing conductance model in RIM, through a validation process for six space weather events. The performance analysis indicates overall improvement in the ionospheric feedback to ground-based space weather forecasts. Specifically, the model is able to improve the prediction of ionospheric currents which impact the simulated dB/dt and ΔB, resulting in substantial improvements in dB/dt predictive skill.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源