论文标题
使用防火墙含有共同爆发
Containing COVID-19 outbreaks using a Firewall
论文作者
论文摘要
事实证明，Covid-19-19爆发在分散之前很难分离和扑灭。背后的一个重要原因可能是，由于发作前的传染时间，轻度病例和/或无症状携带者，包括有症状的人的流行病学障碍可能会失败。在这些特殊的Covid-19功能中，我们研究了一个计划，该计划包含在爆发和城市其他地区之间增加一个额外的防火墙街区的城市中的爆发。我们实施了具有随机噪声的耦合隔室模型，以模拟部分隔离的局部爆发，并在有或没有防火墙的情况下分析其进化，以用于不同的合理模型参数。我们探索如果流行病的进化会触发磁通量和/或锁定在不同块中的策略变化，如何实现进一步的改进。我们的结果表明，仅在爆发和大部分城市之间增加一个额外的障碍来获得实质性的改进。
COVID-19 outbreaks have proven to be very difficult to isolate and extinguish before they spread out. An important reason behind this might be that epidemiological barriers consisting in stopping symptomatic people are likely to fail because of the contagion time before onset, mild cases and/or asymptomatics carriers. Motivated by these special COVID-19 features, we study a scheme for containing an outbreak in a city that consists in adding an extra firewall block between the outbreak and the rest of the city. We implement a coupled compartment model with stochastic noise to simulate a localized outbreak that is partially isolated and analyze its evolution with and without firewall for different plausible model parameters. We explore how further improvements could be achieved if the epidemic evolution would trigger policy changes for the flux and/or lock-down in the different blocks. Our results show that a substantial improvement is obtained by merely adding an extra block between the outbreak and the bulk of the city.
