论文标题
南非数据的缺陷是否可以解释其早期的SARS-COV-2峰？
Could Deficiencies in South African Data Be the Explanation for Its Early SARS-CoV-2 Peak?
论文作者
论文摘要
与先前的锁定制度分析所预测的阈值相比，SARS-COV-2大流行很早就达到了峰值。最方便的解释是，某些外部因素更改了基本复制号的值，$ r _ {\ rm 0} $;当然，有这样的论点。尽管如此，其他因素仍可能发挥作用。这项研究试图将观察到的峰与与当时有效相似的锁定状态预测的阈值调和。它考虑了数据中两个不同的假设错误的效果：第一个是，真实感染水平已被乘法因子低估，而第二个则是不可察觉的，预先存在的，预先存在的，免疫，人群中的免疫分数。虽然表明，当然可以制造对早期峰的感知，就像观察到的那样极端，仅通过这两种现象，但值必须相当高。无论如何，这种现象不会微不足道。这仍然是一个不可避免的事实，即感染的早期峰与$ r _ {\ rm 0} $的相当深刻的变化相吻合；在所有预期的数据缺陷方案中。
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked very early in comparison to the thresholds predicted by an analysis of prior lockdown regimes. The most convenient explanation is that some, external factor changed the value of the basic reproduction number, $r_{\rm 0}$; and there certainly are arguments for this. Other factors could, nonetheless, have played a role. This research attempts to reconcile the observed peak with the thresholds predicted by lockdown regimes similar to the one in force at the time. It contemplates the effect of two, different, hypothetical errors in the data: The first is that the true level of infection has been underestimated by a multiplicative factor, while the second is that of an imperceptible, pre-existing, immune fraction of the population. While it is shown that it certainly is possible to manufacture the perception of an early peak as extreme as the one observed, solely by way of these two phenomena, the values need to be fairly high. The phenomena would not, by any measure, be insignificant. It also remains an inescapable fact that the early peak in infections coincided with a fairly profound change in $r_{\rm 0}$; in all the contemplated scenarios of data-deficiency.
