论文标题
按时表征概率定律，直到核心损坏PRA
Characterizing the Probability Law on Time Until Core Damage With PRA
论文作者
论文摘要
概率风险评估（PRA）的某些建模假设允许简单地计算核心损伤频率（CDF）。这些假设还确保剩余的时间遵循指数分布，其参数值等于CDF计算的参数值。虽然通常可以理解，这些建模假设导致了不确定性的近似表征，但我们提供了一个简单的论点，解释了为什么由此产生的指数时间直到核心损害分布低估了风险。我们的解释将首先审查危险功能的操作物理特性，然后提供非估计理论论点，以揭示这些属性对PRA的后果。在这里提供的结论符合任何可能的操作历史记录，以尊重PRA的基本假设。因此，对于我们的发展，对过滤概率空间的量度理论结构是不需要的。然后，我们将以简短的讨论结论，将直觉与我们的分析发展联系起来。
Certain modeling assumptions underlying Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) allow a simple computation of core damage frequency (CDF). These assumptions also guarantee that the time remaining until a core damage event follows an exponential distribution having parameter value equal to that computed for the CDF. While it is commonly understood that these modeling assumptions lead to an approximate characterization of uncertainty, we offer a simple argument that explains why the resulting exponential time until core damage distribution under-estimates risk. Our explanation will first review operational physics properties of hazard functions, and then offer a non-measure-theoretic argument to reveal the the consequences of these properties for PRA. The conclusions offered, here, hold for any possible operating history that respects the underlying assumptions of PRA. Hence, the measure-theoretic constructs on filtered probability spaces is unnecessary for our developments. We will then conclude with a brief discussion that connects intuition with our analytical development.
