论文标题
建模出生控制政策对中国人口和年龄的影响：延迟出生和最低出生年龄限制的影响
Modeling the impact of birth control policies on China's population and age: effects of delayed births and minimum birth age constraints
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑年龄结构化模型，在出生之间具有难治时期。这些模型可用于制定中国单子女政策的替代人口控制策略。通过允许任何数量的出生，但是在出生之间施加了延迟，我们表明了如何减少总人口以及如何产生相对较老的年龄分布。这种延迟代表了人口管理的一种更加“连续”的形式，严格的单孩子政策是一个有限的案例。这种政策方法可以更容易被社会接受。我们的分析提供了研究人口统计学以及社会约束如何影响人口结构的初始框架。
We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to China's one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an imposed delay between births, we show how the total population can be decreased and how a relatively older age distribution can be generated. This delay represents a more "continuous" form of population management for which the strict one-child policy is a limiting case. Such a policy approach could be more easily accepted by society. Our analyses provide an initial framework for studying demographics and how social constraints influence population structure.
