论文标题
随着山脊回归的时变参数
Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions
论文作者
论文摘要
时变参数(TVP)模型经常用于经济学来捕获结构变化。我强调了一个相当多的事实 - 这些实际上是山脊回归。立即,这使计算,调整和实现比在州空间范式中容易得多。除其他事项外,解决等效的双脊问题即使在高维度中也非常快,而关键的“时间变化”是通过交叉验证调整的。不断发展的波动率与两步脊回归有关。我考虑将稀疏性的扩展(算法选择哪些参数变化,哪些参数变化)和减少秩限制(变化与因子模型相关)。为了证明该方法的有用性,我使用它来研究加拿大货币政策在加拿大使用大型时期的当地预测的演变。该应用程序需要估计约4600台TVP,这是一项符合新方法的任务。
Time-varying parameters (TVPs) models are frequently used in economics to capture structural change. I highlight a rather underutilized fact -- that these are actually ridge regressions. Instantly, this makes computations, tuning, and implementation much easier than in the state-space paradigm. Among other things, solving the equivalent dual ridge problem is computationally very fast even in high dimensions, and the crucial "amount of time variation" is tuned by cross-validation. Evolving volatility is dealt with using a two-step ridge regression. I consider extensions that incorporate sparsity (the algorithm selects which parameters vary and which do not) and reduced-rank restrictions (variation is tied to a factor model). To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, I use it to study the evolution of monetary policy in Canada using large time-varying local projections. The application requires the estimation of about 4600 TVPs, a task well within the reach of the new method.