论文标题
空间模块化网络中的流行扩散和控制策略
Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network
论文作者
论文摘要
网络上的流行病扩散是网络科学中研究最多的动态之一，在实际流行病方案中具有重要意义。尽管如此，实际流行病的动力学及其如何受感染通道的下划线结构的影响仍未得到充分了解。在这里，我们在分析和数值上应用SIR模型并进行研究，流行病扩散在最近开发的空间模块模型上，该模型模仿了一个国家的城市结构。该模型假设在城市内部感染通道连接许多不同的位置，而城市之间的感染通道较小，通常直接连接二维平面中的几个最近的邻居城市。我们发现该模型经历了两个流行病过渡。第一个较低的阈值代表了一个城市内部的当地流行病，而不是整个国家，第二个较高的门槛代表了整个国家的全球流行病。基于我们的分析解决方案，我们提出了几种控制策略以及如何优化它们。我们还表明，尽管控制策略可以成功控制该疾病，但早期行动是防止疾病全球蔓延的必要条件。
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the SIR model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels between cities are less and usually directly connect only a few nearest neighbor cities in a two-dimensional plane. We find that the model experience two epidemic transitions. The first lower threshold represents a local epidemic spread within a city but not to the entire country and the second higher threshold represents a global epidemic in the entire country. Based on our analytical solution we proposed several control strategies and how to optimize them. We also show that while control strategies can successfully control the disease, early actions are essentials to prevent the disease global spread.
