论文标题
数据驱动的优化控制COVID-19流行病
Data-driven Optimized Control of the COVID-19 Epidemics
论文作者
论文摘要
优化旨在遏制Covid-19的控制策略经济的影响是一个挑战。我们每天使用来自美国不同大都市统计区域（MSA）的当地卫生管理部门报告的COVID-19患者的新病例计数，以参数化一个模型，该模型很好地描述了每个地区疾病的传播。然后，我们引入了一个时间变化的控制输入，该输入代表了对给定区域人口施加的社会疏远水平，并解决了最佳控制问题，目的是最大程度地减少社会疏远对经济的影响，例如在终端时间内对流行病的抑制程度。我们发现，除了初始时间和最后一次，最佳控制输入与每个区域的常数近似，这与已实现的重新打开“阶段”重新打开的系统形成鲜明对比。对于所有考虑的领域，此最佳级别对应于比数据估计的水平更严格的社会距离。适当选择用于控制控制动作的时间段非常重要：根据特定的MSA，此期间应短或长或中间。我们还考虑了以下情况：透气性在时间上增加（例如，由于天气越来越寒冷），我们发现最佳控制解决方案会逐渐更严格的社会疏远度量。 {我们最终计算了修改模型以纳入疫苗接种对人群的影响的最佳控制解决方案，并且我们看到，根据许多因素，在对人群疫苗的疫苗进行期间，社会疏远措施可以最佳地降低。
Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening `in phases'. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. {We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.
