论文标题

模型融合以增强长期葡萄糖预测的临床可接受性

Model Fusion to Enhance the Clinical Acceptability of Long-Term Glucose Predictions

论文作者

De Bois, Maxime, Yacoubi, Mounîm A. El, Ammi, Mehdi

论文摘要

本文介绍了衍生物组合预测因子(DCP),这是一种用于对糖尿病患者进行长期葡萄糖预测的新型模型融合算法。首先,使用多种模型做出的葡萄糖预测的历史,预测给定地平线的未来葡萄糖变化。然后,通过从已知的葡萄糖值开始累积过去的预测变化,可以计算融合的葡萄糖预测。引入了新的损失函数,以使DCP模型学会对葡萄糖变化的变化更快地做出反应。 该算法已在T1DMS软件的10 \ textit {In-Silico}型糖尿病儿童上进行了测试。已经使用了三个初始预测指标:高斯过程回归剂,一个前馈神经网络和极端的学习机器模型。 DCP和其他两种融合算法已经在120分钟的预测范围内进行了评估,预测的根平方误差,预测变化的根平方误差以及连续的葡萄糖 - 轨道网格分析。 通过在预测准确性和预测变化的准确性之间取得成功的权衡,DCP以及其专门设计的损失功能可以提高预测的临床可接受性,从而提高了模型对糖尿病患者的安全性。

This paper presents the Derivatives Combination Predictor (DCP), a novel model fusion algorithm for making long-term glucose predictions for diabetic people. First, using the history of glucose predictions made by several models, the future glucose variation at a given horizon is predicted. Then, by accumulating the past predicted variations starting from a known glucose value, the fused glucose prediction is computed. A new loss function is introduced to make the DCP model learn to react faster to changes in glucose variations. The algorithm has been tested on 10 \textit{in-silico} type-1 diabetic children from the T1DMS software. Three initial predictors have been used: a Gaussian process regressor, a feed-forward neural network and an extreme learning machine model. The DCP and two other fusion algorithms have been evaluated at a prediction horizon of 120 minutes with the root-mean-squared error of the prediction, the root-mean-squared error of the predicted variation, and the continuous glucose-error grid analysis. By making a successful trade-off between prediction accuracy and predicted-variation accuracy, the DCP, alongside with its specifically designed loss function, improves the clinical acceptability of the predictions, and therefore the safety of the model for diabetic people.

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