论文标题

管理沿海洪水风险的权衡和协同作用:纽约市的案例研究

Trade-offs and synergies in managing coastal flood risk: A case study for New York City

论文作者

Ceres, Robert L., Forest, Chris E., Keller, Klaus

论文摘要

关于如何管理未来洪水风险的决定经常由复杂和计算昂贵的模型告知。这种复杂性通常限制了不确定性的表示和对策略的考虑。在这里,我们使用中间复杂性模型框架,使我们能够分析丰富的策略,目标和不确定性。我们发现,允许更多的降低风险策略组合可以扩展解决方案集,有助于解释协同作用和权衡,并指出可以改善结果的策略。

Decisions on how to manage future flood risks are frequently informed by both sophisticated and computationally expensive models. This complexity often limits the representation of uncertainties and the consideration of strategies. Here, we use an intermediate complexity model framework that enables us to analyze a rich set of strategies, objectives, and uncertainties. We find that allowing for more combinations of risk mitigation strategies can expand the solution set, help explain synergies and trade-offs, and point to strategies that can improve outcomes.

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