论文标题

目标驱动的长期轨迹预测

Goal-driven Long-Term Trajectory Prediction

论文作者

Tran, Hung, Le, Vuong, Tran, Truyen

论文摘要

随着使用强大的顺序建模和丰富的环境提取,人们对人类短期轨迹的预测已经显着提高。但是,长期预测仍然是当前方法的主要挑战,因为这些错误可能会沿途累积。确实,一致且稳定的预测远至轨迹的末尾,就需要对该轨迹的整体结构进行更深入的分析,这与行人在旅途目的地的意图有关。在这项工作中,我们建议建模一个假设过程,该过程决定行人的目标以及这种过程对长期未来轨迹的影响。我们设计目标驱动的轨迹预测模型 - 一种实现这种直觉的双通道神经网络。网络的两个渠道扮演了他们的专门角色,并协作以生成未来的轨迹。与传统的目标条件基于计划的方法不同,该模型体系结构旨在概括具有任意几何和语义结构的不同场景的模式和工作。该模型显示在各种设置中,尤其是在大型预测范围内都胜过最先进的模型。该结果是人类行为分析中视觉和几何特征自适应结构化表示的有效性的另一个证据。

The prediction of humans' short-term trajectories has advanced significantly with the use of powerful sequential modeling and rich environment feature extraction. However, long-term prediction is still a major challenge for the current methods as the errors could accumulate along the way. Indeed, consistent and stable prediction far to the end of a trajectory inherently requires deeper analysis into the overall structure of that trajectory, which is related to the pedestrian's intention on the destination of the journey. In this work, we propose to model a hypothetical process that determines pedestrians' goals and the impact of such process on long-term future trajectories. We design Goal-driven Trajectory Prediction model - a dual-channel neural network that realizes such intuition. The two channels of the network take their dedicated roles and collaborate to generate future trajectories. Different than conventional goal-conditioned, planning-based methods, the model architecture is designed to generalize the patterns and work across different scenes with arbitrary geometrical and semantic structures. The model is shown to outperform the state-of-the-art in various settings, especially in large prediction horizons. This result is another evidence for the effectiveness of adaptive structured representation of visual and geometrical features in human behavior analysis.

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