论文标题
因果期望最大化
Causal Expectation-Maximisation
论文作者
论文摘要
结构性因果模型是珍珠因果理论中的基本建模单元。原则上,它们允许我们解决反事实,这些事实是因果关系阶梯的最高术语。但是它们通常包含将其应用程序限制为特殊设置的潜在变量。这似乎是由于本文证明的事实的结果,即即使在以多胎状图为特征的模型中,因果推断也是NP-HARD。为了处理这种硬度,我们介绍了因果关系算法。它的主要目的是从数据中重建有关明显变量的数据的潜在变量的不确定性。然后,通过贝叶斯网络的标准算法来解决反事实推断。结果是一种大致计算反事实的通用方法,无论是否可识别它们(在这种情况下,我们提供界限)。我们从经验上以及通过得出可靠的间隔来表明我们提供的近似值在相当多的EM运行中变得准确。这些结果最终使我们最终争辩说,似乎在不了解结构方程的情况下通常可以计算反事实界限的趋势思想。
Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit their application to special settings. This appears to be a consequence of the fact, proven in this paper, that causal inference is NP-hard even in models characterised by polytree-shaped graphs. To deal with such a hardness, we introduce the causal EM algorithm. Its primary aim is to reconstruct the uncertainty about the latent variables from data about categorical manifest variables. Counterfactual inference is then addressed via standard algorithms for Bayesian networks. The result is a general method to approximately compute counterfactuals, be they identifiable or not (in which case we deliver bounds). We show empirically, as well as by deriving credible intervals, that the approximation we provide becomes accurate in a fair number of EM runs. These results lead us finally to argue that there appears to be an unnoticed limitation to the trending idea that counterfactual bounds can often be computed without knowledge of the structural equations.