论文标题

使用堆叠的非参数贝叶斯方法预测能源消耗

Energy consumption forecasting using a stacked nonparametric Bayesian approach

论文作者

Weeraddana, Dilusha, Khoa, Nguyen Lu Dang, Neil, Lachlan O, Wang, Weihong, Cai, Chen

论文摘要

在本文中,在非参数高斯工艺(GP)的框架内研究了预测家庭能源消耗的过程,使用多个短期序列数据。当我们开始使用智能电表数据来清晰地描绘出住宅用电的清晰图片时,越来越明显的是,我们还必须构建详细的图片并了解消费者与气体消耗的复杂关系。电力和气体消耗模式都高度取决于各种因素,这些因素的复杂相互作用是复杂的。此外,由于典型的气体消耗数据是低粒度,而时间点很少,因此,幼稚地应用常规时间序列预测技术可能会导致严重的过度拟合。考虑到这些考虑因素,我们构建了一种堆叠的GP方法,其中将每个GP的预测后代应用于每个任务,都在下一个级别GP的先前和可能性中使用。我们将模型应用于现实世界中的数据集,以预测几个州澳大利亚家庭的能源消耗。我们将直观吸引人的结果与其他常用的机器学习技术进行了比较。总体而言,结果表明,所提出的堆叠GP模型优于我们测试的其他预测技术,尤其是当我们具有多个短时间实例时。

In this paper, the process of forecasting household energy consumption is studied within the framework of the nonparametric Gaussian Process (GP), using multiple short time series data. As we begin to use smart meter data to paint a clearer picture of residential electricity use, it becomes increasingly apparent that we must also construct a detailed picture and understanding of consumer's complex relationship with gas consumption. Both electricity and gas consumption patterns are highly dependent on various factors, and the intricate interplay of these factors is sophisticated. Moreover, since typical gas consumption data is low granularity with very few time points, naive application of conventional time-series forecasting techniques can lead to severe over-fitting. Given these considerations, we construct a stacked GP method where the predictive posteriors of each GP applied to each task are used in the prior and likelihood of the next level GP. We apply our model to a real-world dataset to forecast energy consumption in Australian households across several states. We compare intuitively appealing results against other commonly used machine learning techniques. Overall, the results indicate that the proposed stacked GP model outperforms other forecasting techniques that we tested, especially when we have a multiple short time-series instances.

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