论文标题

全球大气温度控制系统的经验证据:物理结构

Empirical evidence for a global atmospheric temperature control system: physical structure

论文作者

Leggett, Mark, Ball, David

论文摘要

有证据表明,自然控制系统会影响全球大气表面温度(Leggett and Ball,2020)。本文设置并检验了一个关于控制系统顺序元素及其结果的物理组成的假设。控制系统影响的最终结果定义为全球大气表面温度。假设中用于控制系统元素类型的术语是依次是领先的元素,控制器和执行器。假设执行器直接或通过倒数第二个结果影响最终结果。控制系统的存在是通过在假设控制系统序列的每个步骤中表现出具有统计学意义的单方面因果关系来证明的。有证据表明,以归一化差异指数为代表的控制系统的主要元素是全球生物圈。以前,生物圈作为对照系统被称为盖亚(Lovelock and Margulis,1974)。发现第四个(第二个衍生)项可以增强Leggett和Ball(2020)中所示的控制系统的比例,积分和衍生过程项。发现控制系统的主要执行器被证明是风速和云盖。云覆盖物直接影响最终结果,全球表面温度。它和风速也影响了发现的倒数第二次结果,增强的海洋热量吸收并增强了外向的长波辐射。这些共同导致控制系统输出到最终结果,全球大气温度。总体而言,在全球大气的许多主要物理维度上存在控制系统活动的证据。

There is evidence that a natural control system influences global atmospheric surface temperature (Leggett and Ball, 2020). The present paper sets up and tests a hypothesis concerning the physical makeup of the sequential elements of the control system and its outcomes. The final outcome the control system influences is defined as global atmospheric surface temperature. The terms used for the control system element types in the hypothesis are, in sequence, leading element, controller and actuator. Actuators are hypothesised to affect in turn the final outcome either directly or via penultimate outcomes. The existence of the control system is evidenced by demonstration of statistically significant one way Granger causality across each step of the hypothesised control system sequence. Evidence is presented that the leading element of the control system, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, is the global biosphere. The biosphere as a control system has previously been referred to as Gaia (Lovelock and Margulis, 1974). A fourth (second derivative) term is found to enhance the Proportional, Integral and Derivative process terms of the control system shown in Leggett and Ball (2020). The main actuators of the control system found are shown to be wind speed and cloud cover. Cloud cover is shown to influence the final outcome, global surface temperature, directly. It and wind speed also influence the penultimate outcomes found, those of enhanced ocean heat uptake and enhanced outgoing longwave radiation. These together lead to control system output to the final outcome, global atmospheric temperature. Overall, evidence for the activity of the control system is present across many major physical dimensions of the global atmosphere.

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