论文标题
实验中的策略设计未知干扰
Policy design in experiments with unknown interference
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了对具有溢出效应的策略的估计和推断的实验设计。单元被组织成有限数量的大簇，并在每个群集中以未知的方式相互作用。首先，我们引入了一个单波实验，该实验通过改变群集对的随机化，估计了治疗概率变化的边际效应，考虑了溢出效应。使用边际效应，我们提出了政策最佳性测试。其次，我们设计了一个多波浪实验，以估计福利最大化治疗规则。我们在大型现场实验中提供了强大的理论保证和实施。
This paper studies experimental designs for estimation and inference on policies with spillover effects. Units are organized into a finite number of large clusters and interact in unknown ways within each cluster. First, we introduce a single-wave experiment that, by varying the randomization across cluster pairs, estimates the marginal effect of a change in treatment probabilities, taking spillover effects into account. Using the marginal effect, we propose a test for policy optimality. Second, we design a multiple-wave experiment to estimate welfare-maximizing treatment rules. We provide strong theoretical guarantees and an implementation in a large-scale field experiment.
