论文标题
关于猜测的猜测：用反馈的卡片猜测的实用策略
Guessing about Guessing: Practical Strategies for Card Guessing with Feedback
论文作者
论文摘要
在简单的纸牌游戏中，纸牌一次被交易一张，玩家依次猜测每张卡片。我们研究每个猜测后给出反馈（例如正确/不正确）的问题。对于具有重复值的甲板（如二十一点，在西装无关紧要）中，最佳策略与“贪婪策略”（每轮最有可能的卡）不同。此外，最佳和贪婪的策略都太复杂了，无法实时使用人类玩家。我们的主要结果表明，简单的启发式方法接近最佳。
In simple card games, cards are dealt one at a time and the player guesses each card sequentially. We study problems where feedback (e.g. correct/incorrect) is given after each guess. For decks with repeated values (as in blackjack where suits do not matter) the optimal strategy differs from the "greedy strategy" (of guessing a most likely card each round). Further, both optimal and greedy strategies are far too complicated for real time use by human players. Our main results show that simple heuristics perform close to optimal.
