论文标题
FIFA排名：评估和前进
FIFA ranking: Evaluation and path forward
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们研究了FédérationInternationale de Football Association（FIFA）使用的排名算法；我们分析了当前使用的参数，显示可以从中得出的正式概率模型，并优化了后者。特别是，自2018年引入算法以来，我们得出结论，从算法中使用的游戏的“重要性”（由FIFA定义）从算法的预测能力的角度来看是适得其反的。我们还假设要植根于正式建模原则的算法，在1970年，戴维森（Davidson）的模型似乎是一位出色的候选人，保留了当前使用的算法的形式。结果表明，通过使用家庭场优势和游戏中抽奖的明确模型，该算法的预测能力显着提高。可以通过以目标差异引入结果的加权来实现中等但值得注意的改进，尽管该目标差异并非植根于正式的建模原则，但与当前的算法兼容，并且可以调整为足球比赛的特征。
In this work we study the ranking algorithm used by Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA); we analyze the parameters it currently uses, show the formal probabilistic model from which it can be derived, and optimize the latter. In particular, analyzing the games since the introduction of the algorithm in 2018, we conclude that the game's "importance" (as defined by FIFA) used in the algorithm is counterproductive from the point of view of the predictive capability of the algorithm. We also postulate the algorithm to be rooted in the formal modelling principle, where the Davidson model proposed in 1970 seems to be an excellent candidate, preserving the form of the algorithm currently used. The results indicate that the predictive capability of the algorithm is notably improved by using the home-field advantage and the explicit model for the draws in the game. Moderate, but notable improvement may be attained by introducing the weighting of the results with the goal differential, which although not rooted in a formal modelling principle, is compatible with the current algorithm and can be tuned to the characteristics of the football competition.
