论文标题
高度协调的全国性大规模旅行限制对于有效缓解和控制中国的COVID爆发至关重要
Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China
论文作者
论文摘要
自2019年新型冠状病毒（SARS-COV-2）引起的这种疾病，自2019年12月在中国埃斯波特武汉（Epcicenter Wuhan）自首次报道以来，该疾病引起了全球范围的困扰。与900万人相比，在中国的Covid-19在中国的限制中占据了更多超过9亿人的锁定，这使得中国在中国的限制中的限制超过了900万人，这使得超过900万人的锁定限制了。中国的其他省份也效仿。在这里，我们评估了中国大规模封锁和旅行限制的影响，这是由于锁定期间和锁定期间的移动模式变化所反映的。我们量化了各省和省内的流动性模式的同步。使用这些迁移率数据，我们将省份之间的运动流与流行病学隔室模型结合使用，以量化锁定和减少疾病传播的有效性。我们的分析表明，其他省份的本地社区传播的开始和阶段取决于埃普中心河北收到的累积人口流出。因此，感染可以进一步传播到附近和远处的其他相互联系的地方，从而需要同步锁定。此外，我们的数据驱动的建模分析表明，锁定并因此降低了一定时间，以引起对减慢扩散的实际影响，并最终使流行病受到检查。尽管中国的人口统计学和流行病学特征非常异构，但流动性数据表明，大规模的旅行限制是通过自上而下的方法始终如一地应用的，并且自下而上的依从性很高。
The COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused graving woes across the globe since first reported in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, China, December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been successfully curtailed by massive travel restrictions that put more than 900 million people housebound for more than two months since the lockdown of Wuhan on 23 January 2020 when other provinces in China followed suit. Here, we assess the impact of China's massive lockdowns and travel restrictions reflected by the changes in mobility patterns before and during the lockdown period. We quantify the synchrony of mobility patterns across provinces and within provinces. Using these mobility data, we calibrate movement flow between provinces in combination with an epidemiological compartment model to quantify the effectiveness of lockdowns and reductions in disease transmission. Our analysis demonstrates that the onset and phase of local community transmission in other provinces depends on the cumulative population outflow received from the epicenter Hubei. As such, infections can propagate further into other interconnected places both near and far, thereby necessitating synchronous lockdowns. Moreover, our data-driven modeling analysis shows that lockdowns and consequently reduced mobility lag a certain time to elicit an actual impact on slowing down the spreading and ultimately putting the epidemic under check. In spite of the vastly heterogeneous demographics and epidemiological characteristics across China, mobility data shows that massive travel restrictions have been applied consistently via a top-down approach along with high levels of compliance from the bottom up.
